Imagine the political situation in the country if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was able to win the recent elections in Karnataka. It would have ridden roughshod over every other opinion. It’s not my contention that the defeat has mellowed either its leadership or its rank and file. Manipur is in clear evidence.

What is incontrovertible is that the BJP’s defeat in the southern state has given rise to hope among all sections of people who believe that Modi’s leadership has been an unmitigated disaster. They feel that the BJP can indeed be defeated in the 2024 elections.

In the case of Karnataka, people knew that it was more or less a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress. Of course, I do not forget that the Janata Dal has also a sizeable presence in the state. After all, Karnataka politics was at one time controlled by the late Ramakrishna Hegde and H.D. Deve Gowda, who even became Prime Minister.

Nobody considered that any other party had a chance in Karnataka. Surprisingly, just before the last date for submission of nomination papers, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which does not have any presence in Karnataka, announced a list of its candidates.

Of course, nobody expected the NCP to win even a single seat. The question raised was, who could have benefited from the NCP’s presence? Obviously, it was the BJP. I wondered whether the BJP was able to influence the NCP leadership to field its candidates so that the Congress votes could be split.

In this context, it would be interesting to recall that if the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had won 10 to 15 percent votes in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP would have been re-elected to power. Unfortunately for Arvind Kejriwal, in most constituencies it got less than 2 percent votes. The people in Karnataka were clever enough to know that any vote for the NCP, at the cost of the Congress, was a vote for the BJP. 

A few days back, Supriya Sule, daughter of NCP strongman Sharad Pawar, announced that there would soon be two big political explosions. Nobody asked her what her source was. One turned out to be her father’s announcement that he was quitting from the leadership of the NCP.

It was as farcical as Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh’s dramatic bid to resign which his supporters foiled. As an observer of the Maharashtra political scene, I was wondering what could be the next “explosion”.

It came the other day when, overnight, the NCP’s leader of the Opposition Ajit Pawar was sworn in as the deputy chief minister along with eight other ministers from the NCP. This was truly an explosion that befitted Sule’s prediction. It is difficult to believe that Sharad Pawar was taken aback by his nephew’s decision to hitch the NCP wagon to the BJP.

In the turbulent and often unpredictable world of Indian politics, few figures have displayed as much opportunism and lack of political scruples as Sharad Pawar. Despite his claims of being a champion of the people, his actions over the years have revealed a pattern of self-interest and alliances of convenience. 

As Pawar finds himself at the crossroads of his political career, it becomes imperative to question the very existence of the NCP and shed light on the true nature of his villainous political tactics. His career has been marked by a series of opportunistic alliances and betrayals of ideologies. 

One glaring example of this is his contentious relationship with Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Indian National Congress. Pawar actively opposed Gandhi's leadership, claiming that she was a foreigner, forming the NCP in 1999 as a breakaway faction. However, he later joined hands with her, exposing his willingness to compromise his principles for personal gain.

He should have disbanded the party once it became clear that Sonia Gandhi did not want to become the Prime Minister. She gave the post to Dr Manmohan Singh, who held the post as a gentleman par excellence would hold. 

Pawar’s political opportunism is further evidenced by his inconsistent stands on critical issues. One may even get the impression that he is a close supporter of Narendra Modi.

Pawar has been known to take contradictory positions depending on the prevailing political winds. Such flip-flopping highlights his lack of a principled approach and raises questions about his authenticity as a leader.

His history of political opportunism has eroded the trust and credibility he once enjoyed among the public and his political allies. His frequent shifting of alliances has left him isolated, with no lasting or reliable partnerships. When a leader cannot be trusted to remain loyal to his own convictions, it becomes difficult to place faith in his ability to serve the interests of the people.

It is evident that his actions have brought into question the very purpose and existence of the NCP. Pawar's opportunism, inconsistent stands, and lack of trustworthiness have cast a shadow on his political legacy. The NCP, built on the foundation of personal ambition rather than a genuine commitment to public service, has become a symbol of Pawar's political villainy.

While Pawar's political opportunism has been widely discussed, it is equally important to shed light on the political chicanery displayed by his nephew and deputy chief minister, Ajit Pawar. 

Ajit Pawar’s rise to power within the NCP has been marked by cunning manoeuvres and a thirst for personal ambition. His recent announcement that he aspires to become the chief minister serves as a warning to Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and highlights the Machiavellian nature of his political tactics.

He has proved that he, not his uncle, is the big boss. In fact, he has the audacity to remind Pawar Senior that he was 83 and it was time that he remained at home praying for his nephew’s success. He also made it clear that he was not willing to accept his niece Supriya Sule as his leader under any circumstances.

He reminds the people what the son-in-law of NT Rama Rao did to his father-in-law. Politics is the art of the possible and he is not any way different from Chandrababu Naidu, who controlled politics in the undivided Andhra Pradesh at one time.

Ajit Pawar's political career has been characterised by his penchant for manipulation and power play. He has consistently demonstrated a willingness to disregard party loyalty and forge alliances of convenience to further his own interests. 

His brief stint as deputy chief minister in 2019, when he swiftly switched sides to align with the BJP, showcased his propensity for backroom deals and political manoeuvring. His position of influence within the NCP can be largely attributed to his family ties. He seems to believe that he no longer needs the Pawar name to strengthen his hold on the state.

Of course, the prevalence of dynastic politics within the party raises concerns about meritocracy and the promotion of deserving leaders. Ajit Pawar's unabashed pursuit of power, coupled with his family lineage, highlights the nepotistic nature of his rise in the political ranks, compromising the principles of democratic governance. But then what is true about him is true about many other leaders, including Akhilesh Yadav.

Ajit Pawar's announcement of his desire to become the chief minister is not just a personal ambition; it is a calculated move to assert dominance and send a warning to Eknath Shinde. After all, it is the fifth time he is holding the post of deputy CM. It used to be said about L.K. Advani that he was the perpetual number two in the BJP, the first being A.B. Vajpayee.

This power play underscores the internal rivalries and power struggles within the party, further undermining the credibility and unity of the NCP as a political force. As Ajit Pawar's clout within the NCP grows, it becomes crucial to recognise the political chicanery he embodies. 

His manipulative tactics, nepotism, and thirst for power have the potential to undermine the party's credibility and cohesion. This would be to the advantage of the Congress which finds itself in a better position as it can aspire to garner all the secular votes.

There is reason to believe that Pawar Junior has entered into a secret understanding with the BJP which finds that the remnant of the Shiv Sena that Eknath Shinde leads would not help the party in the next election. The BJP and the Shiv Sena have the same Hindutva constituency. They can only feed on each other’s vote bank.

If the NCP is able to split the Congress votes and push down from the pedestal where Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has placed the grand old party, it will smoothen Narendra Modi’s return to power in 2024. In other words, the Shiv Sena that Shinde represents is expendable. The clever politician that Shinde is, he would have by now realised that his game of one-upmanship with Uddhav Thackeray is almost over.

It was not love alone that the BJP used to split the NCP. The party has been accused of using government agencies such as the Income Tax Department, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to target and tame opposition leaders. 

The NCP leaders are alleged to be involved in scams worth thousands of crores of rupees. It is a different matter that however black a person is, he will turn lily white when he joins the BJP. 

This alleged misuse of power and authority to manipulate political scenarios has raised concerns about the state of Indian politics. Instances of such alleged misuse include the raids conducted by the Income Tax Department on several NCP leaders' properties in Maharashtra. 

Critics claim that these raids, often timed to coincide with crucial political developments, are intended to create fear and undermine the opposition's morale. The ED has also been accused of targeting NCP leaders under the guise of investigating money laundering cases, thereby exerting pressure and curbing their political influence.

The BJP's alleged tactics of utilising government agencies to control opposition leaders have extended beyond Maharashtra. The party is now being accused of attempting to destabilise the Nitish Kumar-led government in Bihar, highlighting what some consider a new low in Indian politics.

The BJP's strategy in Bihar seems to involve luring members of the ruling Janata Dal (United) to switch sides. This political manoeuvring aims to weaken the JDU's position and potentially form a BJP-led government in the state. Critics argue that such tactics undermine the democratic principles of fair play and ethical governance.

Critics also contend that the BJP's actions in Bihar reflect a broader pattern of political opportunism and power consolidation. By exploiting the vulnerabilities of regional parties, the BJP seeks to expand its influence and minimise opposition at both the state and national levels. This approach, they argue, erodes the democratic fabric of the country and weakens the spirit of cooperative federalism.

Furthermore, the perception that any party aligning with the BJP invites self-destruction contributes to a culture of fear and uncertainty. If parties are deterred from forming alliances due to concerns about political retribution, the democratic system suffers, as coalitions and collaborative governance become increasingly difficult to achieve.

Come to think of it, the Shiv Sena was described as the BJP’s natural ally because the two parties have many things in common like their faith in Hindutva. See the condition of the party after aligning with the BJP for so long. 

Nitish Kumar has become more vulnerable after he expressed his ambition, though not in so many words, to step into the shoes of Modi in 2024. The fresh cases lodged against Lalu Yadav’s wife and son are an indication that the BJP will go to any extent to weaken the Bihar set-up.

Will Nitish Kumar be able to stand up to the BJP’s machinations? This is the billion-dollar question whose answer will reveal the kind of election scenario that will emerge in 2024. The BJP is like the banyan tree that does not allow any other tree to grow in its neighbourhood. The party’s embrace is like Dhritarashtra's embrace from which neither Shiv Sena nor NCP can escape.

ajphilip@gmail.com