The results of the assembly election surprised many of us. They were way off the mark, and so were the political analysts. The BJP won in three central states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, all of which it had lost to the Congress in the last assembly elections. 

The recent elections have made the north-south divide prominent. While the BJP is now in power in most northern states, it has yet to make inroads into the south. Being more developed, the South has thinner populations due to effective population control that comes with education and has moved socially and economically ahead. Sops like gas cylinders do not make the cut there. Therefore, things look to be relatively stable. However, the Congress and opposition parties like the CPM, DMK, AIADMK, BRS and BJD are bound to lose their last bastion should they fail to plan to face the juggernaut, the BJP.

Ashutosh Varshney, Sol Goldman Professor of International Studies and the Social Sciences at Brown University posits that the preoccupation of Hindu nationalism with Hindi could hinder BJP's southern march. The Southerners’ love for their language and heritage does not permit them to allow Hindi to overshadow or forcefully accept it.

Though they were neck and neck with the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, the run-up to the elections did see the Congress doing well in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These three states are crucial, as they contribute to a large chunk of the MPs in the parliament. The systematic game plan of the BJP can be a classic case study for any political party. 

Forgetting his widely publicised criticism a few months ago, the Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, led aggressive campaigns, drafting in his ministers in all states with dozens of well-organised rallies to demonstrate the overwhelming popularity of the party. It would seem that the damages to the state economies were mended when the BJP rained freebies in all the states that went to polls, including Telangana and Mizoram! The BJP employed all its eager volunteers to go house surfing to convince voters about its programmes and the incentives offered to them.

Home Minister Amit Shah ensured that the “booth management” was handled well. Essentially, it was a strategy perfected first in Gujarat, where a group of dedicated party workers were assigned to go through the voters’ list and repeatedly contact every voter throughout the campaign to ensure they were convinced that the BJP was their best bet on election day. 

Not announcing a chief ministerial candidate was another clever ploy they employed. In Rajasthan, they did not name Vasundhara Raje, the natural choice. Fielding her publicly would have upset the other hopefuls waiting in the corridors of power. Raje, though popular, also did not see eye-to-eye with the central leadership. They also did not name Shivraj Chouhan, who has been the chief minister for a long time. For similar reasons, it did not propose Raman Singh, who was at the helm earlier in Chhattisgarh. The party wished to tell the electorate it might change faces, hoping the voters would be enamoured by a fresh look, expecting a new dawn.

In contrast, the Congress chose to go with Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh, who should have retired long ago. Had Gehlot allowed Sachin Pilot to take over as chief minister, the state would have witnessed a generational change with a younger, educated, more dynamic leader. The result was that the Gujjars went with the BJP this time, feeling that Pilot would be sidelined again if the Congress won. In Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath won the last election but ignored Jyotiraditya Scindia, even though he would have been a better choice. Scindia lost patience and joined the BJP, taking a flock of 22 MLAs with him. The Congress government collapsed after 18 months, and the BJP snatched victory after it was defeated in the polls with a comfortable majority. Had Scindia been made the chief minister, the Congress would have swept the polls this time.

Today, the BJP exudes confidence after the election results. It feels like the voters have spoken. This may be true to an extent, but one cannot surmise that the BJP will sweep 2024 as it did in the last Lok Sabha elections.

It is well-known that the Indian voter is unpredictable and secretive. We saw it in the results. We saw it in the Exit Polls. Voters tend to cast differently for the assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

What happened in 2018 is a reminder for us. The Congress won the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. But in the following Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 61 of the 65 seats in these three states. Similarly, in 2019 in Odisha, Naveen Patnaik's government swept the polls, riding back to power. But in the parliamentary elections, it won only 12 of the 21 seats. 

Even a single event can end up altering public opinion and perception. The opposition seemed ready to take on the BJP in 2019, but the Pulwama attack and India's consequent retaliation at Balakot in Pakistan changed the equations overnight. Rajiv Gandhi's assassination led to countrywide sympathy for the Congress, which then swept the Lok Sabha elections soon after. 

It is unlikely that the BJP will ease its aggressive electoral stance just because they have won three major states in the Hindi heartland. Soon after the polls, Amit Shah was in West Bengal to kick off the election campaign there.

Ashok Gulati, a distinguished professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, wonders if the Election Commission would think of forming taxpayers' committees to evaluate how many of the promises made to the voters by various parties were welfare measures and how many were mere bribes. It is unlikely that this will ever happen, as the Election Commission of today has hardly shown any spine or the pride becoming of its independence.

Women who formed the new target demographic of potential BJP supporters were well cared for through its women-centric schemes like cash doles every month. The results are a proof of this. 

In Madhya Pradesh, for instance, 48 per cent of workers are women. Of these, 58 per cent are employed as helpers in cottage industries. They usually do not get paid for their work as it is run from their homes or are typically small businesses where they are helping out. So, it meant a lot when Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the state's chief minister, announced that Rs. 1,250 would be credited to their bank accounts every month. Women turned out to vote in large numbers, which made a difference. 

Madhya Pradesh has been one of the states with a BJP presence and influence for decades. The fact that the Congress managed to win in the last election was incredible, but so is how they lost this time with the lowest number of seats ever. In a display of poor leadership, Kamal Nath, 66, heeded his advisers and chose not to ally with other parties. Had he done so, the Congress would have easily won many more seats as the winning margins were low. The SP, which did not win a single seat, would have at least succeeded in taking away seats from the BJP had it been tied up in a coalition with other smaller parties. 

The assistance of the former chief minister Digvijaya Singh in crafting the electoral strategy did little since they could not commit as a team due to their divergent views and vested interests. 

Chouhan could win as he crafted a winning strategy using numerous welfare schemes for the disadvantaged, especially women. He also paid a lot of attention to ensuring that farming, agricultural produce, and irrigation coverage increased, making the state see an average annual growth of 6.1 per cent. Tribals and scheduled castes, ignored earlier by various dispensations, got attention from Chouhan, who launched welfare schemes. 

Of all the results, the most surprising one came from neighbouring Chhattisgarh, as chief minister Bhupesh Baghel had a reasonably good run and was seen by political analysts as the only one who could leap over the reality of anti-incumbency. He was overconfident, just like his party. Perhaps too overconfident. After all, he had helped boost agriculture and the rural economy and worked on engineering socio-economic reform through numerous welfare schemes. 

To neutralise Baghel's welfare schemes and freebies, the BJP announced a higher purchase price for paddy and a loan waiver for farmers, increased the support price of paddy to Rs. 3,100 a quintal, promised to procure 21 quintals of paddy per acre, offered Rs. 1,000 per month to married women, filled up 1.5 lakh job vacancies and constructed 1.5 lakh houses. Acting swiftly, the BJP got its ground workers to go to every constituency and ask voters to fill in forms to avail of these schemes. 

Another game changer was Modi’s announcement that the free foodgrain scheme that began during the Covid-19 pandemic would be extended for another five years just three days before the polls. The BJP campaign also tapped into the local issues, highlighting corruption and various scams that riddle the state. 

Rajasthan has never voted the same government to power in the last thirty years. This year, they kept to that tradition, voting the Congress out and giving BJP a majority. But here, too, the Congress did have an opportunity to win since the chief minister Ashok Gehlot managed pretty well during the last three years. He innovated the Indira Rasoi Scheme, where community kitchens offered a meal for eight rupees. Many benefitted from the Annapurna food packet scheme, where they got free wheat, dal, sugar, masala and cooking oil. There was no shortage of welfare schemes to boast about, but Congress could not showcase them effectively.

What did him in was that he did not act on the numerous charges of corruption his MLAs faced. Senior Congress leader Sachin Pilot kept protesting all these years against the inaction against corruption and even went on a fast to force the Gehlot’s hands. Gehlot did not risk denying seats to MLAs who had charges against them as he feared they would turn against him. Ironically, only nine of the twenty-five ministers who contested won. The Gujjars, who supported Pilot formerly, skipped over to the BJP as well, as they did not see Gehlot making way for him. The Congress lost 63 seats that it held last time to the BJP. 

On the other hand, the BJP gambled on denying seats to sitting MLAs and brought in new faces based on their research. They roped MPs like Diya Kumari, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore and Kirori Lal Meena to replace the dropped MLAs.

In Rajasthan, the BJP offered subsidies worth Rs. 450 on gas cylinders, the maximum selling price of Rs. 2,700 per quintal for wheat, free scooters to meritorious XII standard students, free school and college education for girls, a savings bond for every girl child, and Rs. 1,200 for each student.

The story panned out differently in Telangana, and it ended up being the only state where Congress could come into power. Taking ideas from the Karnataka playbook, Revanth Reddy, 56, chief of Congress’ state wing, focussed on the corruption in the Bharat Rashtra Samiti government headed by K Chandrasekhar Rao. It was a laudable win as Congress's presence had been ousted after the formation of the state. In a well-run, aggressive campaign, Reddy paraded how the BRS was a family-run party that kept the family's interests above the state. 

While the BRS was routed throughout the state and even in its traditional strongholds, it gained admirers within the limits of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation—no prizes for guessing how that happened. Rao had worked for the last ten years to make it a better city with good infrastructure. He was rewarded with a clean sweep here.

Mizoram, the tiny north-eastern state, popped another surprise when the Zoram People's Movement, formed in 2017, emerged as the winner. For decades, the state has seen only two governments, the Congress and the Mizo National Front. Both were decimated as people voted for change. Vested interests often siphon development funds, and voters were fed up with both these parties, so they unanimously voted for the ZPM, a coalition of six small parties that promised a clean government. Led by Lalduhoma, 74, a former IPS officer and security in-charge of late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, ZPM attracted local celebrities and youngsters, just like AAP did in Delhi when it first contested in the elections. The ZPM bagged 27 seats, the MNF got 10, the BJP got two, and the Congress won just a single seat. One of those who lost was the chief minister Zoramthanga, 79, of the MNF.

Lalduhoma concentrated on issues like lack of development, the need to bring financial reforms as the state debt grew, and the corruption charges against Zoramthanga. He promised that there would be zero tolerance for corruption and that he would permit the Central Bureau of Investigations to probe corruption cases. 

Though only a few months remain, the INDIA coalition has yet to draw out its game plan and show that it is a united front. Due to its poor showing in these assembly elections, the INDIA coalition will not allow Congress the upper hand in deciding ticket distribution. Getting BJD, BSP and BRS into its fold is also a challenge.

The Congress has a lot of lessons to learn from these elections. It had reasonably good governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh but lost to an overly aggressive BJP. It is time for a leadership change in the Congress. It has to ask the aged to retire, allowing the younger ones to take the mantle. The electorate wants new faces, innovative ideas and a new style of governance.

Ramesh Menon is a recipient of the Ramnath Goenka Award for Excellence in Journalism, a documentary filmmaker, educator, and the author of six books. Among them is Modi Demystified - The Making of a Prime Minister.