India’s demographic dividend was hailed by respected economists highlighting the fact that India had something which the world had not: Millions of young people. The theory was that they would help the country rise to the top of the world with their skills and intellect. Suddenly, the narrative has turned into how there is a population explosion and how the bomb is ticking away. And how something as silly as the draft of the Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation and Welfare) Bill, 2021, should be taken seriously. The fact that elections in India’s largest state is only a few months away, is not lost on those who are media literate and can see through the ploy of how this can polarise the voters to help the BJP ride back to power.

How else can you explain the logic of a two-child norm that will be forced on people in the state? Ask any population expert and you will know that it will not work as anything that is forced upon will be counterproductive. We could look at the Emergency which tried to force population control on its populace. It was one of the main reasons for Indira Gandhi to lose the election. Has it worked in China? Why did China with such a huge population reverse it? There are lessons to learn but only if you are ready to listen.

Both Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath of Uttar Pradesh and Himanta Biswa Sarma, Chief Minister of Assam, are saying that they want to bring in a population control law to bring down the total fertility rate as there is a crunch on resources. But the fact is that the total fertility rate is anyway coming down all over the country and even in an underdeveloped state like Uttar Pradesh. Yogi is not talking openly about the “danger from Muslims” but Sarma has clearly spelled out that he thinks the growing Muslim population poses a danger for Assam.

Education is the Key

There is no debate about the fact that population growth has to be stemmed in India as it stresses the limited resources. But the way out is education, empowerment of women, and effective targeted health communication. 

As we have seen in Kerala, this has worked well as Hindus, Muslims and Christians have limited their families. But the Uttar Pradesh law envisages punishment as the way to control the population! It just has to look southwards to figure it out: Clearly, southern states with better literacy levels along with better health infrastructure and awareness have helped stem the population growth which invariably will keep decreasing year after year.  

We have seen how poverty and illiteracy are a dangerous concoction as far as population rise is concerned in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and other underdeveloped states.

But no politician is saying that let us ensure that literacy spreads as fast as possible, let us build a good health infrastructure to cut down infant mortality, let us sensitise communities to the advantages of having a small family, let us empower women to take control over the number of children she will have…If women are going to have a say in our families, there will be smaller families. What political parties need to do is to force governments to formulate policies and institutions that will provide stable, well-paying jobs by creating employment opportunities. The economic growth and well-being of families will naturally cut down family sizes. Poor states and poor countries have larger populations and that should be enough proof of what we as a country should be looking at.  

Uttar Pradesh wants to bar those who violate the two-child policy from contesting local body elections, applying for government jobs, getting promotions, and taking advantage of government subsidies. What will be interesting is to watch what will happen to the majority of  MLAs in the state who have more than two children. Most of them will not be able to contest elections.

Newer Complications

It does not require a social science scientist to tell us that a law of this kind will end up in numerous divorces as men would get rid of women to contest elections and secure other government largesse. Then, another natural consequence would be female foeticide with the obsession for the male child being rampant all over.  The Population Foundation of India is also apprehensive that something like a two-child norm will increase divorces and sex-specific abortions.

According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and Census data, the total fertility rate (TFR) has been falling year after year. TFR has declined from 3.4 in 1994 to 2.2 in 2015 on a national level.

The general fear that has been drummed up by the BJP for years is that the Muslim population will rise so much that the Hindus will be in a minority. There is no evidence that this will ever happen. Look at the 2011 Census: The population of Muslims was 17.2 crores, and Hindus were 96.6 crores (79%).  The next census will throw up a similar pattern.

But, this is a fear that many have despite the fact that they are educated. Statistics indicate that the fertility rate among Muslims is falling faster than compared to the Hindus. So, why is this panic being created? Obviously, to create polarisation before elections. According to NFHS-4, in 22 states, the fertility rate of Muslims was lower than that of Hindus.  Interestingly, the population policy chorus is growing only in BJP-ruled states. Karnataka is also mulling on developing a population law. 

S Y Quraishi, former Chief Election Commissioner and author of The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India, argues that as India’s population is anyway coming down, there was no need for such a law and it is only to keep the cauldron boiling for communal polarisation and probable electoral gains for Yogi Adityanath in the impending election. “In Assam, in particular, the TFR has, in fact, dropped from 2.2 in 2015 to 1.9 in 2020-21. Thus, the population “explosion” is a bogey,” Quraishi wrote in a signed article in The Indian Express.

Did not Work in China

After the one-child policy was enforced with an iron hand in China in the 1990s, it was forced to move to the two-child norm and lately even relaxed it as the country is saddled with a huge elderly population with a shortage of young workers to keep the economic wheels moving. Surely, India can learn some lessons from it. Short-term political gains are not going to help India in the longer run.

Some BJP MPs like Rakesh Sinha and Ravi Kishan are considering moving private member’s bills in Parliament on the need to have a population control law. 

The demographic dividend that India is blessed with should not be taken for granted. It can pay dividends only if supported by enabling policies to help it grow and prosper. Like education, skill-building, employment opportunities, economic growth, and related issues to ensure prosperity.  Laws like this are sure to bring in unnecessary social tension, community apprehensions, social instability, strife, and hatred.

Yogi needs to realise that removal of poverty, education, empowerment of women, and economic growth are the factors that can arrest population explosion and not a lame law that has shades of sounding like a communal dog whistle.

The most common propaganda statement being floated around for a long time is that Hinduism will be swamped by Islam as Muslims will soon become a majority. The fact that this is an impossibility given the percentage of Muslims in India, is hardly ever examined.

Hindus make up around 76.5 percent of the population. Muslims are just around 14.2. All past evidence points out the fact that the fertility rate of both Hindus and Muslims is falling. This is bound to happen as literacy rates improve and having larger families become unsustainable due to inflation. The birth rate among Muslims may be higher than the other communities but it is also a fact that over the past few years, it is rapidly coming down and there is no reason to believe that it will not continue.

That the ultimate ploy is to make India an Islamic country is mouthed by many who love WhatsApp forwards made by propaganda machines. It also helps to widen the divide between the two communities creating suspicion and hatred. Many right-wing leaders in the past have goaded Hindu women to have more children to counteract the “growing population of the Muslims”. But when one looks at something as serious as population explosion, one must look at empirical evidence. 

Another piece of propaganda is that Muslims have more children as they are polygamous. It might help to look at the figures: In 1974, the Committee on the Status of Women in India found that the prevalence of polygamy among tribals was 15.2%, Buddhists (9.7%), Jains (6.7%), and Hindus (5.8%). Muslims were at 5.7%.

Tailpiece:  The government in its own admission in the Supreme Court in an affidavit, said, “The wanted fertility in India as per NFHS (National Family Health Survey) IV is only 1.8 as against the actual fertility of 2.2 prevailing at that time, indicating thereby that couples (on) an average do not want more than 2 children.”

As many as 25 out of 36 states and Union Territories have already achieved the replacement level fertility of 2.1 or less. It is time we do not get paranoid about population growth that is skewed towards one community and concentrate on other burning issues like rising poverty, unemployment, education, health, and inflation.

(Ramesh Menon is a senior journalist, documentary filmmaker, and educator. He is presently editor of The Leaflet.)