Determining victory

Fr. Gaurav Nair Fr. Gaurav Nair
11 Dec 2023

Overturning exit poll predictions and defying political pundits' analyses, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged triumphant against the Congress in the three contested States. Reclaiming control in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while retaining power in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP's success seemed to run contrary to initial expectations. The Congress's remarkable resurgence in Telangana, where it had faced ousting previously, stands as the sole silver lining in an otherwise challenging scenario.

The BJP's victory in this round underscores its growing influence over the Hindi belt. While some may be tempted to attribute this success to Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), it cannot be ignored that the party's divisive strategies, coupled with its members' groundwork at the grassroots level, played a pivotal role. But it would be reductive to attribute the situation only to a single factor.

Congress's inflexibility proved costly, resulting in the loss of all three states it had secured just five years ago. This same rigidity led to a mass exodus of party members and an ongoing deterioration in its overall standing. Although the success in Telangana is commendable, the looming Lok Sabha election poses a formidable challenge.

A closer examination of the electoral map reveals a stark divide between the BJP's dominance in the north and non-BJP parties in the south of India. Notably, the BJP's continued siege on the southern states has yielded an increasing number of seats compared to previous elections.

The Bharat Rashtra Samithi's (BRS) failure in Telangana extends beyond typical anti-incumbency; it signifies a rejection of dynastic rule devoid of ideology. This serves as a cautionary signal to the Gandhis and their ardent supporters, urging them to allow the Congress to grow organically, free from their shadow. The younger generation within the party, eager to showcase their capabilities, has been stifled by an older generation in which the family finds comfort.

The BJP took a high-risk approach by centring its campaign around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sidelining regional leaders such as Vasundhara Raje. Fortunately for them, this gamble paid off, unlike its failure in Karnataka. The BJP secured a comfortable majority with 115 out of 199 seats in Rajasthan, 164 out of 230 in Madhya Pradesh, and 54 of 90 in Chhattisgarh, granting them unilateral power to shape the government in all three states. This does not mean consolidating power at the centre and weakening at the local level is the way to go. However, it does mean that the BJP has been able to bridge the gap between the centre and state in this instance and has been able to grasp a clear advantage by a wide margin.

These decisive numbers empower the BJP's central leadership, particularly Prime Minister Modi, who looks forward to a third consecutive term. Ashok Gehlot couldn't hold the fort despite his valiant efforts in Rajasthan to prevent a complete Congress washout. In Chhattisgarh, the party faltered amid allegations of corruption and policies that marginalised tribal communities.

These outcomes signal an urgent need for Congress to reevaluate its strategy, starting with a change in leadership to rebuild trust among the people and the party workers. The Bharat Jodo Yatra aimed to engage with social groups but fell short of expectations.

The prospect of Congress re-entering the political arena appears dim unless a significant event with immediate and historically profound implications sways the citizens' emotions.

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