Determining victory

Fr. Gaurav Nair Fr. Gaurav Nair
11 Dec 2023

Overturning exit poll predictions and defying political pundits' analyses, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged triumphant against the Congress in the three contested States. Reclaiming control in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while retaining power in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP's success seemed to run contrary to initial expectations. The Congress's remarkable resurgence in Telangana, where it had faced ousting previously, stands as the sole silver lining in an otherwise challenging scenario.

The BJP's victory in this round underscores its growing influence over the Hindi belt. While some may be tempted to attribute this success to Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), it cannot be ignored that the party's divisive strategies, coupled with its members' groundwork at the grassroots level, played a pivotal role. But it would be reductive to attribute the situation only to a single factor.

Congress's inflexibility proved costly, resulting in the loss of all three states it had secured just five years ago. This same rigidity led to a mass exodus of party members and an ongoing deterioration in its overall standing. Although the success in Telangana is commendable, the looming Lok Sabha election poses a formidable challenge.

A closer examination of the electoral map reveals a stark divide between the BJP's dominance in the north and non-BJP parties in the south of India. Notably, the BJP's continued siege on the southern states has yielded an increasing number of seats compared to previous elections.

The Bharat Rashtra Samithi's (BRS) failure in Telangana extends beyond typical anti-incumbency; it signifies a rejection of dynastic rule devoid of ideology. This serves as a cautionary signal to the Gandhis and their ardent supporters, urging them to allow the Congress to grow organically, free from their shadow. The younger generation within the party, eager to showcase their capabilities, has been stifled by an older generation in which the family finds comfort.

The BJP took a high-risk approach by centring its campaign around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sidelining regional leaders such as Vasundhara Raje. Fortunately for them, this gamble paid off, unlike its failure in Karnataka. The BJP secured a comfortable majority with 115 out of 199 seats in Rajasthan, 164 out of 230 in Madhya Pradesh, and 54 of 90 in Chhattisgarh, granting them unilateral power to shape the government in all three states. This does not mean consolidating power at the centre and weakening at the local level is the way to go. However, it does mean that the BJP has been able to bridge the gap between the centre and state in this instance and has been able to grasp a clear advantage by a wide margin.

These decisive numbers empower the BJP's central leadership, particularly Prime Minister Modi, who looks forward to a third consecutive term. Ashok Gehlot couldn't hold the fort despite his valiant efforts in Rajasthan to prevent a complete Congress washout. In Chhattisgarh, the party faltered amid allegations of corruption and policies that marginalised tribal communities.

These outcomes signal an urgent need for Congress to reevaluate its strategy, starting with a change in leadership to rebuild trust among the people and the party workers. The Bharat Jodo Yatra aimed to engage with social groups but fell short of expectations.

The prospect of Congress re-entering the political arena appears dim unless a significant event with immediate and historically profound implications sways the citizens' emotions.

Recent Posts

Corrective press notes are not substitutes for accountability. This crisis demands independent investigation, judicial scrutiny and reversal of the SIR. Institutional complicity is the gravest betraya
apicture Oliver D'Souza
05 Oct 2026
The revelations have shattered public confidence in the Election Commission. Gyanesh Kumar's continuance as Chief Election Commissioner is untenable. Whether through resignation or impeachment, he mus
apicture Cedric Prakash
05 Oct 2026
It was never the powerful, privileged or educated who kept Indian democracy alive, but the poor who queued under the scorching sun to exercise their franchise. Now, the very machinery entrusted with p
apicture A. J. Philip
05 Oct 2026
The Opposition has a historic opportunity to unite against the erosion of electoral integrity and defend citizens' fundamental right to vote. Delayed response, political fragmentation and narrow inter
apicture Jacob Peenikaparambil
05 Oct 2026
India's institutions were supposed to be built on merit, independence and constitutional accountability. Yet, beneath their lofty credentials, kinship networks quietly reproduce privilege, compromise
apicture John Dayal
05 Oct 2026
Article 342 of the Constitution of India empowers the President to officially specify indigenous tribes, tribal communities, or specific groups within them as "Scheduled Tribes," in consultation with
apicture Pachu Menon
05 Oct 2026
I have seen the professional anti-caste intellectual. S/He arrives. S/He speaks. S/He refers to Ambedkar. S/He cites John Rawls. S/He quotes Michael Foucault.
apicture Dr Suryaraju Mattimalla
05 Oct 2026
Before recording a crime, obtain written consent from everyone involved
apicture Robert Clements
05 Oct 2026
How can greater knowledge be accompanied by greater wisdom, greater prosperity by greater solidarity, greater power by greater responsibility, and greater connectivity by genuine human fraternity?
apicture Br. Dr. Lawrence Soosai Nathan, OFM Cap.
28 Sep 2026
"Deus meus et omnia" ("My God and my All!") was St. Francis of Assisi's favourite prayer. According to early Franciscan accounts, most notably recorded by Brother Bernard of Quintavalle, Francis's fir
apicture Br. Cyriac George, OFM Cap.
28 Sep 2026