Accounts of bleeding withdrawals fill the pages of history. Afghanistan: Great Britain withdrew from Afghanistan like a wounded tiger when she was the sturdiest power in the world. Russia withdrew from the same Afghanistan being badly wounded; America after two decades of bombings and boastings. Vietnam: China withdrew from Vietnam after an occupation of over 800 hundred years. French withdrew from the same Vietnam after the colonial period; America withdrew humiliated beyond description. Japan withdrew from China after World War II, Netherlands from Indonesia, France from Algeria, Portugal from Goa…each nation at its own pace and after having paid its own price. 

But Putin seems to believe in Thucydides’ (5th cent historian) theory: “The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must”. However, the struggle for one’s home, one’s people, one’s identity generates a measure of undefinable power. Hidden energy reveals its unlimited resources. That was what happened during the Second World War era. That is what is happening in Ukraine today. 

As of now, Russian forces have reached the centre of Mariupol. Thousands have been taken captive. In Kharkhiv, 500 civilians have been killed; 600 buildings destroyed, including schools, nurseries, hospitals, clinics. Millions of Ukrainians have fled their homes, half of them children. Hypersonic weapons come into use. Will the war be upgraded to nuclear? One dreads to think. As Zelensky addressed the American Congress, he turned emotional. He quoted Martin Luther King. “There was a collective holding of breath,” says Senator Angus King. The world holds its breath today. 

An Emotional Re-construction of History

People have been trying to interpret Vladimir Putin’s mind. William Burns, CIA Director, thinks that Putin is a grievance-ridden and ambition-driven person. Putin’s grievance is against those who caused the downfall of the Soviet Union and the humbling of Russia’s imperial system. His ambition is to play a key role in the resurrection of the Great Soviet Order and the reconstitution of a Czarist type of regime. 

Xi Jinping is attempting something similar: to revive the ancient Chinese Empire that tolerated no rivals in the areas of its interest. Dependents were allowed to prosper, rivals had to cease to exist. When Modi speaks about 1200 years of Hindu humiliation, savours the concept of Super Power, cherishes the image of Vishwa Guru, encourages the dream of heading an Akhand Bharat, the same genes seem to be running in his veins as well. Think of leaders concentrating on the revival of Roman, Spanish or Portuguese Empires;

Egyptian, Assyrian or Ottoman Empires. Will there be peace in the world, if they did so? Should they not rather concentrate on the well-being of 100% of their fellow-citizens, not just of 80%, nor specially privilege the 1% that lend them financial support? 

As with glory, so with pain. The recent film “Kashmir Files” of Vivek Ranjan Agnihotri depicts the suffering of Kashmiri Pandits in the 1990s when they had to flee their homeland. Modi lauds the production. Agnihotri himself admits that film is soft power. It paves the way to power, in any case. The director confesses his recognition to the government. Only one question remains, while acknowledging the quality of the film and paying respect to everyone to whom it is due: does it rouse anger against a particular community in India, a smaller and weaker community? Does it promote social solidarity? Does it strengthen the nation?

Selective Remembering of Historical Events

Similarly, a selective reading of chosen periods of Indian history and a biased interpretation to promote the interests of the dominant group would be unfair. Modi-Shah-Yogi may have to tell us what happened on the subcontinent from the Vedic times: storming of the strongholds of the indigenous people (described as Asuras, Rakshasas, Kiratas) reducing them into Dalits; the Puranas composed by Dalit authors like Vyasa and Valmiki telling blood-curdling tales: the deceptions, cruelties, humiliations, the reduction of the natives into sub-humans, the subjection of the weak. 

Allow secular-neutral anthropologists to interpret these narrations objectively. Don’t these accounts deserve to be translated into emotion-rousing visual media: the tale of the loss of land to the tribals, of natural resources, and the harshness meted out to their leaders, and their defenders like Stan Swami. The UN has pronounced that his death remains a blot on India’s image. Why neglect these emotion-rousing narratives. Why don’t we put the arguments of Periyar, Phule and Ambedkar into pictures? 

Or is there room for a sympathetic reading of history, understanding human failures in context, and working towards interpretations that unite, strengthen and motivate, and keep India together? It is for India’s Mind-shapers called RSS to decide. They did. They opted to continue the 80% vs 20% Kurukshetra war. 

Mind-Shapers Shape our Future

The recent RSS meeting at Ahmedabad condemned religious fanaticism in India and lamented the acts of communal hysteria rising in the country. The pity is that they did not admit their own responsibility, rousing polarised anger of one community against another, 80% vs. 20%! Mohan Bhagwat described the Hindu critics of the BJP Regime as Hindu scholars in “intellectual garb” who misuse the Constitutions and encourage fissiparous tendencies. The meeting cautioned against members of a particular community (evidently Muslims) entering the government. It called for “organized strength” (evidently meaning, mob-lynching) to “defeat this menace”. 

What the RSS decides, vibrates to the ends of India. They accomplish what they set out to do. They shape the minds of the rulers. The weaker communities have experienced their “organized strength”. Their team of mob-lynchers hold certificates as ‘nation-savers’.
Ruchir Sharma puts Modi-Shah election victory to their democratic attitudes and hardworking habits. Though they belong to the category of first-generation leaders (like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal), they have acquired credibility by building direct contacts and making contextual assessment of situations. Moreover, a corruption free image accompanies them so far. They are known to be passionately committed to their Hindutva cause. And finally, while the so called “Lutyens elite” remain snobbish and distant, the leaders that have risen from the ranks are at the wavelength of Aam Admi. 

But the trouble with the Big Two is that they are too dependent on the “organized strength” of the mob to which the RSS refers. Their policy in the final analysis is shaped by those “Mind-shapers” with a narrow ‘world horizon’, before whom everyone and everything in today’s India surrenders. Sumantra Bose of London School of Economics contends that Indian political order has become a carbon copy of Xi-Putin regimes, with the aspect of “self-censorship” standing prominent. There is no choice. Mind-shapers dictate, rulers comply (obey).  

Opposition Needs to be Self-Critical

The other day, Sonia Gandhi complained that global social media are not providing a level playing field to all sections of people; that they formulate their rules to please the Ruling Party who excel in hate speeches.  She alleged that bonds have been established between big corporations, the Ruling Party, and social media giants like the Facebook. 

This is a complaint that cannot be ignored. But Congress defeat cannot be attributed to mere media bias alone. Congress may need to admit that they have lost the “moral high stature” that once was theirs; that their organization is weak and their grassroot level contacts inadequate; that hereditary claimants are many, painstaking principled workers few. And moreover, the image of a mai-baap Sarkar, promoting dependence, has been taken over and improved by the BJP, with doles, freebies, election bribes, and cash transfers. 

Further, their collective secular credibility dips, when Rahul Gandhi keeps hopping from temple to temple during election time, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra makes a show of her Ganga pilgrimage, Mamata spends enormous sums on Pooja pandals, and Kejriwal makes a display of his Hanuman-devotion. Everyone knows of Hindutva efforts to propagate Hanuman-cult among the tribals of Jharkhand and Northeast, so as to build up a psycho-religious attitude of servility among them. Critics ask whether all these Opposition leaders are mere sham fighters of the BJP and milder versions of the saffron brigade.

Many forms of unfairness that the BJP has taken to their heights began much earlier. Extra-judicial killings, for example, did not begin with Yogi Adityanath. They started in Mumbai after the 1993 blasts. Some 1200 underworld criminals were killed during a period of 10 years. Something similar was done to the Naxalites. Maoists continue to be killed in the same way. Mass killings of Sikhs was the greatest tragedy of all. The abuse of power when Opposition leaders were in power remains a black mark against them. But the blackest mark against them today is their inability to unite in favour of democracy, which questions the very purpose of their existence as Opposition.

Citizens are duty-bound to evaluate the performance of their political leaders and enlighten each other as to what is best for the country. A balanced view emerges when there is collective thinking and mutual correction. The English-speaking elite may be rightly accused being snobbish, but they have a wider vision, objective criteria for evaluation, self-criticism from within, and are subject to international scrutiny. Too many of the vernacular elite of the Ruling Regime are noticed as outright arrogant and totally insensitive. No wonder!

Their claim to superiority is based on caste-based heritage and centuries-old domination. Some of their top leaders, like a monk-turned-CM, have no vision, no wider-world experience, no scientific outlook or historical objectivity; yet they rule states, control the nation.

Their word is final. They consider they are accountable to no one. 

They are used to commanding, abusing the weak, taking advantage of the marginalized. The low and the humble live in dread of them as they have done for ages.  It is they who translate RSS-wishes into BJP-commands. Thus, outright goondaism becomes the “organized strength” of the 80%. For example, all complaints against mob-lynching currently are declared as being based on “unreliable data”. Prime witnesses of the Lakhimpur Kheri cases are threatened, despite judicial support. Selective favouritism towards the majority community is considered legitimate; scrapping of all welfare programmes natural; selling off of national assets to corporations normal. That gives them time to concentrate on election causes: e.g. fighting regionalism in Bengal with the sub-regionalism of Gorkha-land and Rajbonshistan, fighting dissent in Manipur fostering rebellion, banning hijab in Karnataka while insisting on sacred thread and sindur.

The consequences are terrible. Health: maternity mortality rates remain highest in BJP-ruled states beginning from Assam, MP and UP.  Education: the records we have of Assam shows 1664 schools in single rooms, 3716 schools with one teacher, 314 schools without a teacher. In UP and MP, the situation is worse. Yes, Indian citizens are neither for snobbishness nor arrogance; but they want a government that performs. They dread cultivated irrationality.

Arms Producers will Thrive 

The beneficiary of the Ukraine crisis will be neither wounded Russia nor battered Ukraine, but US. With sanctions imposed, American shale gas and oil business will have a bigger market, higher prices. Their arms production will boom like after WW II. Big Bets are on. Meantime, refugees and oil prices will hit the European Union. Western Europe that is already struggling to accommodate Eastern immigrants will take on bigger burden, 10 million on the move! Biden announces his arrival.

Everything points in this direction: poor countries will continue to survive on agricultural products, rising nations will prosper producing consumer goods; Rich Lands will make their Big Fortunes on arms production. Tomorrow’s competition will be in the manufacture of advanced weapons. Human destiny is fast moving into the hands of arms-producers who will keep prodding the mind-shapers. China’s defence budget has gone up by 7.1%, to $230 billion, three times that of India. What will India do? 

The high and mighty are before this major dilemma: produce arms or perish -- produce arms and perish. This is an artificially created state of helplessness. Jean-Jacques Rousseau says, “Nature never deceives us; it is we who deceive ourselves”.  Humanity seeks to deceive itself. And yet we know, those who take up the swords will perish by the sword (Mt 26:52). West Europe knows that from experience, the East is still to learn. Will India-China-Pakistan acquire that wisdom before it is too late?

Meanwhile, Ranjit Baruah in Assam has launched “Zelensky tea for peace”, inviting everyone to sit down and discuss Ukraine peace over a cup of Assam tea. The Brahmaputra widens the vision!