Isaac Newton said, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, not the madness of people”. Would Newton be more successful today as Russia moves in with 1,50,000 of her best equipped men into Ukraine, claiming to act as a ‘peace-keeping force’? Could he study with Putin the forces at work in the global scenario and calculate the consequences?  Could he remind him of the bitter lessons that Russia should have learned with their misadventure in Afghanistan, and American bungling in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan? 

When leaders exercise ‘uncontrolled power’ for too long, their judgements get warped. Today’s political horizon reveals too many of their species. “O judgement! Thou art fled to brutish beasts, and men have lost their reason” (Shakespeare). 

A Rethinking on World Order

The number of lives lost has been steadily rising, including those of civilians. Over 1.7 million have fled their homes. “It’s hell,” cry the refugees. Everyone is waiting to see the political consequence of the Russian attack. It is bound to rejuvenate the NATO, which Macron had called ‘brain-dead’; strengthen European solidarity that was weakening; and revive Transatlantic loyalty that Trump had greatly undermined. A chill has gone through all Eastern Europe that had been growing restless under EU bureaucracy. Now, they will hold back their complaints.  

Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland and Victor Orban of Hungary have been forthright in condemning Russia. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are in full dread. The psychological build-up against Russia that had greatly eased in recent years is bound to rise again. Old memories are fast reviving of Soviet atrocities. And Western Europe is waking up to the need for a self-reliant defence system quite independently of the US.  European millennials are being alerted to the fact that they have been comfortable for too long, with too little sense of responsibility for their collective security.  

If there is no early settlement of issues, world economy can go awry. Weaker countries, including India, are likely to suffer more. China stands aside for a while to see if she can take advantage of new needs that may arise in the global market. Food supply chains are affected. Prices are bound to rise. Russia itself is likely to be the worst sufferer, falling victim to western sanctions. The oil and gas she supplies to Europe (providing for 40% of Europe’s needs), is the main source of her income, apart from arms exports. The recently constructed Nord Stream Pipeline to Germany may be stopped for good. 

After charming people like Trump and pleasing French and German leaders with his pragmatism, Putin is showing his real self. While no one denies Ukraine’s long association with Russia, it is unfair to impose an ‘enforced’ togetherness that amounts to subjection. Ukrainians had too much of it in the past centuries. While one would urge NATO to be respectful of Russian security concerns particularly in Eastern Europe, Russia cannot insist on building up a network of autocratic regimes in her neighbourhood to provide her with security and an arms market. Unfortunately, today’s political loyalties are a game around arms supplies and weapons’ sales, not ideas and ideals, fair deals and balanced settlements! This unfortunately is true of the Great Powers on both sides.

There are several questions that remain unanswered, as Ukraine moves to the centre of world attention. While the Western eyes are glued to European anxieties, could China choose to “liberate” more of Ladakh, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea, timing shrewdly with Newtonian precision? Will there be a change of power alliances in the Middle East? Especially among the oil countries? And about India, Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar asks: Will Rahul Gandhi be thrown up to a leadership position, with people worried that country is in wrong hands? None of these things may happen; for, as Paul Coelho says, “The more violent the storm, the quicker it passes”.

From Irrelevance to Infantile Boasts
 
Amidst so many world uncertainties, what does our Prime Minister do? He claims that the evacuation of students is tribute to India as a “rising power”. It sounds like children showing their ‘muscle power’ to each other when daddy lies on his deathbed. Shocking irrelevance at a moment of world agony! The very need to assert such ‘infantile power’ shows its triviality, its non-existence. But Modiji is capable of taking the world by surprise as he did when he promised to make India a world power in exporting toys. It was at the height of Ladakh confrontation. 

Rather than lament the suffering of Ukrainians and the pain of those who have lost their dear ones, he chose to claim ‘superpower’ status for his country during his election campaigns. No wonder, a Congress spokesperson reported: the popularity of Modiji has risen so high, that he was addressing empty chairs in Varanasi. It is very revealing that only 51% voted in the 5th round of UP elections, one of the lowest in the country.

However, we have absolute sympathy for our national leader who wants to display his power in a moment of crisis. He knows that about 50,000 sq. km of Indian territory is under Chinese occupation. He knows that 50% of our arms supply comes from Russia. It is not easy to make right decisions as to how to remain loyal to Quad, how not to displease the Russian arms suppliers, how to negotiate round American sanctions, and how to avoid a confrontational stance with China. We are fully with him at this sensitive moment, as Mamata assured, invoking wisdom upon his decisions. We ‘understand’ why he needs to distract people with his favourite theme atma-nirbharta, while India has spent $21 billion on American arms from 2007, and more on Russian and French weaponry, not to refer to mighty statues imported from China. We ‘sympathize’ with him when he speaks of taking the enemy by ‘surprise’, because he himself was taken by surprise on the Ladakh front.

Electorate Waking Up

The trouble is that people have noticed how Modiji resembles Putin in his un-reflected decisions like those on demonetisation, and his ruling styles: dismantling state institutions, ridiculing opponents, silencing the media, using state violence against critics, re-writing history, propagating ethnic bigotries, and making divisive comments. These have consequences. Leaders must ‘think’ before they make major decisions, before they stir emotions. 

Sitaram Yechury points out that the ruling party’s election campaign is all about ‘polarisation’, since they have no other weapon. They forget that a divisive ideology threatens the very ‘integrity’ of India, it is anti-national. However, Yechury insists that majority fundamentalism should not be addressed by minority fundamentalism, but by “secular democracy”. 

Meanwhile, emotions about the Ayodhya Temple have gone dead during the UP elections.  Modi was silent about the Temple in the last phase of the polls. It does not move anyone. When the realization of the Great Ram Temple project is near, it would seem no one is interested. As for voting, only 51% appeared for the 5th round of UP elections; contrast that with Manipur’s 2nd phase: 76.62%.  In the UP, Akhilesh seems to be the biggest crowd-puller. 

Rahul spoke of unemployment, price rise and disharmony as the three major issues today. There are 53 million people without jobs in the country. The poor are going hungry, while Modi’s friends are earning Rs. 1000 crores a day, he commented. The ultra-rich grew 11% in 2021 in India. Mamata has been suggesting simple life styles for the leaders of her party. She called Yogi Adityanath a Bhogi. Even conceding that such remarks lack political refinement, the irrelevance of Yogi’s spiritual programmes is becoming evident: bullying cow devotion, shabby interference in people’s diet, forced pilgrimages. Interest in politics too is declining, with fear of interference with voting and manipulation of votes. UP draws the lowest proportions to the polling booth.

However, every citizen has a DUTY to exercise his political rights. Plato says, “One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up by being governed by your inferiors (in intelligence)”. When intelligence runs short, indigence takes over.  UP’s health and development records are the lowest. The state has been handed over to wandering cows! Dinesh Sharma, deputy-CM, frankly admitted that UP farmers consider stray cattle the greatest threat to their crops. As for Amit Shah, he seems to be running short of ideas; he could go no further than boast about Kashmir. He did not, of course, refer to custodial deaths that had increased 7% at the national level in 2020, under his guardianship.  

Coming to the North-East, Congress accuses the BJP of sponsoring Kuki militant groups for votes, giving Rs. 16 crores to outright rebels, thus compromising national security. Amit Shah feels helpless in the North-East. He knows that Mir Jaffar and Aurangzeb stories make no impression there. Pradyut Bordoloi of the Congress alleges that Assam is being forced into the Uttar Pradesh model: of propagating hate, encouraging division.  

Lachit Phukan, the 17th century Ahom general who defended Assam against the Mughals, is presented by the BJP as an anti-Muslim fighter. They do not know that there were Muslims in the Ahom army like commander Bagh Hazarika, when they were fighting the Delhi Sultans. In the place of development programmes, renaming places after Hindu heroes has turned the major activity of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. During a visit to Hyderabad, he urged that names like Nizam and Owaisi should be wiped out, confining Babur and Aurangzeb to history. This seems to be central to BJP strategy. Mighty plans are being developed for the renaming of 13 airports. See the similarity: China is changing Arunachal names! 

Interpretation of Modern History 

The First World War dissolved the Ottoman and the Austro-Hungarian empires. The Second World War broke up the British, French and other western empires. The Cold War disbanded the Soviet Empire. We have to wait and see in what direction the Ukrainian crisis will lead the world. 

Napoleon’s indiscriminate interferences in Central and Eastern Europe stimulated the rise of Imperial Germany and strengthened the Tzarist regime, leading to further disasters. The America’s excesses in East Asia (Korea and Vietnam) stimulated the emergence of a reinvigorated China and of an enlivened Vietnam, inviting new uncertainties. 

Of late, America’s advance into Eastern Europe with NATO has produced an over-assertive Putin and an emboldened and modernized version of the Russian Empire, which is bound to provoke further problems. Xi will gang up with Putin to affirm a rejuvenated and expanded China with a network of ‘forced allies’, which can lead to worse dilemmas. With RSS guiding India’s destinies with its Akhand Bharat ambitions (and Rajnath Singh with his recent ‘Jagad Guru’ aspirations), are going to pile up problems for India as she searches for peaceful international cooperation. 

If, in addition, the American thinktank is unwilling to admit that she is moving to the concluding chapter of her world domination, all the above-mentioned anxieties will only be accentuated. Arms producers, both East and West, will decide the timing, the direction and the extent of the tragedies ahead. The intelligent can see it through.

Raj Dharma

Aldous Huxley puts matters philosophically when he said, “There is one corner of the Universe you can be certain of improving, and that is your own “Self”. Indian sages would readily agree: get rid of illusions, put your thinking in order. This is a message that Modiji is likely to understand. His ‘Yoga for Peace’ is not about building Brahmo missiles (like Kim Jong-un of North Korea testing missiles quietly during the Ukrainian crisis), but encouraging “intelligent and responsible thinking” in the political world. Here is an area where genuine religion can help. Priyanka Gandhi reminds, religion is about assisting people in need; ‘raj dharma’ is about serving humanity. 

One is assisted in this challenging task by the ‘intelligent and responsible’ thinking of others, even critics: like Prime Minister Lee of Singapore who lamented the fall in the standard of probity in Indian political life; US Vice-President Kamala Harris who insisted that the Kashmiris be given a voice; a social thinker Noam Chomsky who called for respect for the minorities; well-informed parliamentarians and perceptive thinkers who point to the fallacies on which the nation’s policies are presently based.  

The Parliament itself has a big role in this endeavour. Unfortunately, the Indian Parliament sits for less than 60 days, compared with the US, the UK, and Japanese Assemblies that debate every national concern for 100 days and more in a year (State Assemblies in Kerala and Odisha sit for less than 50 days). Think, or you perish. Help others to think, or we perish together!