Collapse of Civilisations
Niall Ferguson, the noted historian of civilisations, says America is making the same mistake that earlier civilisations made just before their collapse. In the immediate context, he refers to the accumulation of war-related debt. While this could be one of the proximate causes of the breakdown of a social order, the reasons for a society's gradual decline need further analysis.

Athens wrote its ultimate destiny when it started exploiting conquered people like the Melians. The Roman Empire held together for a long time because it sought to integrate conquered communities, giving them a measure of dignity. But as a sense of non-belonging grew more profound, the distant parts fell apart. So did the Soviet Union centuries later. The Confucian Chinese Empire often felt tremors in South China, Xinjiang, and other peripheries, but it stood together for millennia.

India yielded to every invading army from Alexander's time onwards because the lower caste fighting forces were never given a complete sense of belonging. American university research has confirmed this. While the Buddhist Mauryas and Muslim Mughals could build subcontinental empires as they had no caste divisions, even the mighty Guptas were only partially successful. Caste fragmentation weakened the effort.

So, the post-Gupta period witnessed a gradual decline, as Hindu royalty was busy pleasing Brahmins and organising holy events and lost in internal rivalries. John Keay states that Indian kings were busy with temple-building and worship-organising when the Central Asian Muslim hordes began overrunning the sub-continent. There was more mutual betrayal than united resistance.

Decline of Civilisations
In the long term, China's future can be worrying, too. Their "Command-and-Control policy" has led Chinese women to refuse to marry. In the immediate context, it may be due to the cost of living and unemployment, but there is a silent resistance to being ordered around in personal matters. Today, 22% of the Chinese population is above 60; in 2050, half that society will be above 60!

The contradiction is that sinking societies in all developed countries are arming themselves against each other. We could understand inexperienced 'youngsters' with burgeoning populations clashing with each other. We understand why the youth in Somalia or Bangladesh are polarised. But today, we hear that German youth are polarised, as are youth in many other European countries. They are being led to an emotion-led world. When emotions rise high, no one can predict in what direction society will move.

Rome grew sturdy with the united will of the Roman people. When they came to be fully in command, they grew soft. They set the Germans to fight back the Germans, the Syrians to control the Syrians, and Africans the Africans. And the Roman elite set themselves to enjoy the benefit of all their earlier plundering. Consumption was their only occupation. Motivation fell, and strong-willed people became softies. There was nothing like commitment to a common cause, shared goal-setting, sacrifice, grit, determination, concern for the weak, creativity, innovation, daring, and venture. Rome fell.

The developed world is fast moving in that direction: cultivate the desire for consumption so that the markets may thrive; don't waste energy on being productive! Concentrate on advanced arms development, as arms sales can earn more income. India is not far behind in this thrust.

Be Busy with the Meaningless
The Supreme Court asked the Assam government why it was busy filing cases against cattle traders and beef transporters. The government should have more purposeful things to do. When Himanta Biswa Sarma took over as the Chief Minister, nothing else was heard of for a week except the glories of the cow and the horrors that awaited those who hurt the holy animal. The RSS had to be pleased. There was no word about human development or social well-being, but doom awaited cattle traders. Muslims and tribals held their breath for a while. Will there be living space for us in Assam?

Similar polarisation continues to keep people in tension. The recent attack on the Congress MP Rakibul Hussain must be seen in this light. It results from personal mudslinging, vindictive vocabulary, and cultivated collective hatred. Praying for healing is a crime in Assam, and joining a prayer group is an anti-national activity for a tourist.

Manipur has been reaping the negative fruit of polarisation. In the words of a Meitei volunteer, Barish Sharma: "Wherever he (Chief Minister Biren Singh) wanted us to go, we went and made war. Let me say, Biren is the one who tried to break up Manipur." Modiji's double-engine government has led to double disasters all over India, from Manipur violence to the Maha Kumbh stampede.

"Hindu Fascist Enterprise" (Arundhati Roy)
In her book Incarcerations (HarperCollins Publishers India, Gurugram, 2024), Alpa Shah seeks to define the nature of the political order that has developed in India recently. Indira Gandhi's Emergency of 1975-77 was declared constitutionally, lasted 21 months, and was thrown out by the Indian public. The present regime acts more surreptitiously: it has quietly taken over most governmental institutions and the media. Citizens have helplessly witnessed incarcerations, vigilante policing, terror tactics, and Muslim hate (Shah 488).

Intellectuals speak of 'democratic backsliding,' an authoritarian regime, Hindu authoritarianism, and authoritarian populism…all fashioned after German Nazism and Italian fascism. Arundhati Roy has dubbed the prevailing order as criminal: a Hindu fascist enterprise with popular support. We have a Fascist state. It concentrates on mythical greatness, encourages hegemonic ambitions, cultivates fear of neighbours, and remains subject to a single party.

Thus, the 'Mother of Democracy' has developed an 'Indian form of fascism,' which may be defined as majoritarianism, ethnic democracy, and cultural nationalism. It has succeeded in silencing democratic expressions, defending social hierarchies, developing a street militia, winning mass support, and fostering a spirit of militarism and paranoia. Karan Thapar says, colloquially, it can be called a fascist government. Ramachandra Guha sees too many similarities with Mussolini's Italy. Italy took decades to recover, and India may need longer after the Modi era.

Polls are not adequate proof of democracy if the entire state machinery, press, and judiciary are controlled, social media guides pogroms, and everything is kept under wraps. Anand Teltumbde says decades of democratic values imbibed during the seven decades after Independence are washed out; "terror gangs are unleashed to accomplish what the government's coercive system cannot" (Shah 489-492).

One Man's Whims
Can a population of 1.4 billion be led by one man's whims? America is struggling with a whimsical character. People are going mad, not knowing where they are hurtling. Did one man's whims help Nazi Germany, Communist Russia, China, Vietnam, Cambodia? Even little Cambodia had to sacrifice a quarter of its population to the 'whims' of an ill-educated Pol Pot. Some have underestimated the tragedy. Recently, Cambodia passed a bill toughening penalties for the denial of the Khmer Rouge genocide that wiped out 2.8 million.

Beware of trying to soften India's one-man rule with a flood of moneyed flatterers. The plutocratisation of democracy can be disastrous. In the US, 3.5% of billionaires have joined politics; in China, 36%; in Russia, 21%. With his economy shaking, Xi Jinping has recently initiated a dialogue with his billionaires, including Jack Ma. It is difficult to inspire confidence when a Big Boss's preferences command.

Corporate giants who block taxes and raise prices rob millions to enrich a select few, like Adani and Ambani. And what about the RSS's undefined role in India's political order? Anand Teltumbde is sure that there never was "such a monstrous organisation like the RSS;" neither China nor Russia, neither Mussolini nor Hitler, had one (Shah 494-95).

Similarly, election stunts are self-deceptive tools. Kamala Harris aimed at the votes of the upwardly mobile college graduates. Trump aimed at the working classes, whose wages had remained stagnant for decades, in addition to playing on the sense of insecurity of the white Americans. He promised to defend them against an invasion of black and brown immigrants. He chose to speak and act like a rugged workman and made an immediate appeal.

So America has landed in the hands of a self-willed individual, with not enough institutions immediately at hand to moderate his decisions. The nation may need to evaluate its own structures. The voter also will need to assess the consequences of their own choices. Not a tear for the 47,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza.

Emotion-led decisions can be counterproductive. The 50% cut in transport expenses for women and senior citizens introduced in Maharashtra without proper consideration costs the state bus service 3 crores daily.

The Gujarati Model: Dependence? Political Use of Religion?
Olaf Scholz of Germany clearly did not want JP Vance of America to interfere with European Independence. It is not clear how far our ruling class is going to allow India's Independence to be tampered with. Are they going to allow themselves to be bullied by America to buy oil and weapons only from them? To a large extent, this is what India has been led to by the Moditva government: "Dependence," a vassal status. American oil will cost much more from the point of view of logistics. In the same way, limiting the purchase of arms to the US can limit the nation's choices in a multipolar world.

Or does the 'Gujarat model' consist of a flight from one's homeland? The Gujaratis constitute one of the most significant proportions of the Indian diaspora in different countries. Their determination seems to be to flee Modiji's model state, even with the risk of dying in the Canadian winter.

Or does Modiji's Gujarat model consist of using religion politically with economic benefits? How much elusive benefit do businessmen draw from simple people's humble devotion? Yogi Adityanath frankly admitted that UP drew 3 lakh crore from the Ganga dip!!

Ours Ought to be the Land of Creators, not Censors
Allow people to express their opinions and political views and evaluate the situation. India should be the land of 'creators' not 'censors.' Of course, freedom does not mean promoting pornography or advertising same-sex marriage; instead, it means giving utterance to creative thinking, which will contribute to the collective good.

While government-sponsored headlines announce India's fast growth, the accounts below do not give such confidence. We read that there were 47 million unemployed in India in 2023, 30 million had fled these shores, and that youth unemployment was 23.22% in 2022. Suicides in India in 2022 numbered 170,924, of which 35% were between 18-30. Only 42.67% of Indian graduates are employable, while others lack the necessary skills. Sonia spoke of 14 crore Indians denied food security due to a delay in the census.

AAP came to power with an 'anti-corruption' slogan. Once in power, Kejriwal cleanly forgot his message to the nation. Idealism fell. Professing to be secular, he promised a free trip to Ayodhya if voted to power in Gujarat.

Realism Counts
Interestingly, Himanta Biswa Sarma seems eager to establish an economic relationship between Japan, South Korea, and Assam. They are eager to hire 50,000 or more youths from the region, including nurses. The applicants should be proficient in English despite all negative comments about the language.

And take care: go, not by what politicians say, but by what they do and the sober suggestions they whisper. Trump has suggested the use of ballot papers to preserve the integrity of India's electoral processes. Will Modji listen?

Let us conclude this reflection with a thought from Ambedkar. He was sure that the concept of "Fraternity" would not be complete without a sense of "Responsibility" in the Economic field. Both Amartya Sen and John Dreze are ready to stand by this statement. It could inspire Adani, Ambani…even Elon Musk, Zuckerberg and many others. With Trump at the helm, global markets are stuttering. "Fraternity" alone can save our shared civilisation.