After the massive victory of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh with an increased vote share from 39.67% in 2017 to 41.3% in 2022, a comfortable win for the party in Uttarakhand and Manipur and the party emerging with the largest number of seats in Goa, many analysts predict that the BJP will have a cakewalk in the Lok Sabha elections 2024. 

More than the victory march of the BJP, what is discussed in the media is the unstoppable decline of the Congress, the main opposition party, at all-India level. It could not give even a credible fight in the states where it was the main opposition party. In spite of the vigorous election campaign by Priyanka Gandhi in UP, the Congress had to eat its humble pie of 2 seats with 2.33% of the votes polled. In Punjab, it faced a humiliating defeat at the hands of a decade-old Aam Aadmi Party.  Narendra Modi’s dream of a Congress-mukt Bharat is being realized with the defeat of the party in election after election.

The print and electronic media have been flooded with election analysis since the declaration of election results on March 10. The BJP could continue its winning streak because it could successfully present a narrative of combining Hindutva with welfarism and a robust nationalism. It had plenty of financial resources and an army of Sangh Parivar workers who could take the narrative to every home. 

According to CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey, the BJP could consolidate the upper caste votes and attract a considerable percentage of OBC and SC votes in UP. 89% of Brahmins, 87% of Rajputs, 83% of Vaishyas voted for the BJP. The election results in UP show that the RSS’s efforts to unite the caste-ridden Hindu society by appealing to Hindu religion have proved to be successful to a great extent. Against this backdrop what could be the future of Indian democracy?

The elections in the five states also brought to light the drift of India from a constitutional democracy to electoral democracy. The BJP governments at the centre and in the states had many serious governance failures. Prominent among them are a decline in economic growth that was visible even before the pandemic started, a surge in unemployment, disastrous mismanagement of the pandemic  during the second wave, communal division of society by setting Hindus against Muslims and corroding most of the vital democratic institutions.  In spite of these failures, if people continue to vote for the BJP, it is because of the strength of BJP’s election machinery and the failure of the opposition parties to expose convincingly to people the damages the BJP is inflicting on people and the democratic system.

The opposition parties, excluding the Congress, were preparing to meet in Delhi to plan their strategy for taking on the BJP in 2024 on the assumption that the BJP would have to face setbacks in the election in the five States. After the declaration of the results, there has been no talk about opposition unity. In the absence of a strong opposition the ruling party generally becomes authoritarian and dictatorial. 

After the re-election of the BJP with increased vote share and seats in the Lok Sabha in 2019 the party became arrogant and dictatorial and adopted a number of destructive policies and laws like Citizenship Amendment Act, abrogation of Article 370 and the controversial three farm laws. The massive win in UP Assembly elections and comfortable win in other three states are going to increase BJP’s seats in Rajya Sabha. The party can pass laws with ease to implement its Hindutva agenda in the days to come.

Without a robust Opposition, democracy in India will be further weakened. The recent elections have proved that the regional parties are not able to expand their influence beyond their states. The TMC’s foray into Goa politics did not meet with any success. It could secure over five percent votes without winning any seat. The regional parties have their own vested interests and bringing them together on a common platform requires the mediation of a party that has a pan-India presence. The Congress had the opportunity to take up the mediatory role of bringing together the opposition parties on the basis of a common programme to respond to the burning issues of people. But the Congress forfeited this opportunity because of its failure to put its own house in order.  

After the rout of the Congress in 2019, it had the opportunity to introspect and reinvent itself, but it miserably failed to revamp itself. When Rahul Gandhi resigned as the president, owning moral responsibility for the defeat of the party, it should have elected a new president and prepared a strategy to rebuild the party. On the other hand, it chose a destructive course of action by appointing Sonia Gandhi, who is not in good health, as the interim president. At the same time Rahul Gandhi along with Priyanka Gandhi continued to take vital decisions in the party. 

According to many party insiders, Rahul Gandhi has been doing backseat driving. They have accused him of exercising power without responsibility. In fact, Rahul Gandhi should have taken up the post of the president when the party almost unanimously requested him to give leadership, and should have led the party from the front. As observed by some political analysts, Rahul Gandhi inflicted severe damage on the party because of his backseat driving. Rahul and Priyanka are accused of mishandling the party affairs in Punjab, leading to its humiliating defeat.  

What could be the future course of action for the opposition parties, particularly to the Congress party? Time is running out for the Congress. It has been facing an existential crisis since 2019 because of prolonging the leadership issue. Now the existential crisis is deepened further because of the repeated election defeats and growing discontentment and infights within the party. As long as Rahul Gandhi is doing backseat driving, there is less chance of forging unity in the party and taking initiative to form a broad-based opposition coalition. Even if he takes up the top party post now, the possibility of rejuvenating the Congress and making it as the initiator and leader of the opposition coalition seems to be remote.

Some writers like Ramachandra Guha have pointed out that as long as the Gandhi family continues the leadership of the Congress, the BJP will find excuses for its misdeeds and failures by referring back to the failures of the Nehru Gandhi family. “Thus, charges of corruption in defence deals are answered with reference to Rajiv Gandhi and Bofors; charges of suppressing the media and incarcerating activists are met with references to Indira Gandhi and the Emergency; charges of losing Indian land and soldiers to the Chinese army with reference to Jawaharlal Nehru and the war of 1962 and so on,” wrote Guha in one of his recent articles. According to another journalist, “BJP regards the Gandhi siblings as an asset and Arvind Kejriwal as a genuine threat.”

Not only independent observers but also a prominent member of the G 23 (the dissident group within the Congress party), Kapil Sibal, has openly demanded change of leadership of the Congress party. He criticized the decision of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting on 13th March for not taking any step to revamp the party.  

When the Congress was on the downhill in 1998 Sonia Gandhi accepted the leadership of the party and rejuvenated it. Some political analysts are of the view that in the present political scenario, Mrs Gandhi can save the party by asking her son and daughter to give up the leadership role and facilitating the election of a new president who has the leadership qualities to rebuild the party by uniting the different factions. Political experts argue that the Gandhi family should wholeheartedly support a new leadership without interfering in the affairs of the party, and that would be the greatest service it can do for the Congress and the nation.

Only a united and resurgent Congress will be acceptable to other parties to lead an opposition alliance. Along with resolving the leadership issue and forging unity within the party, the Congress has to reaffirm its centrist position with regard to its ideology. It will not be able to win the confidence of the people by following “soft Hindutva”.  

It appears that the Congress has the last chance to reinvent itself and take the leadership of an opposition alliance in order to take on the BJP and save democracy. If it fails again, in all probability the Aam Aadmi Party can replace the Congress in the opposition space, according to some political observers.