T
here
is a new wind blowing in the Indian sub-continent. It carries with it a new
hope, a new dream. Suddenly, emotions laden
with peace and tolerance are wafting over India and Pakistan. After the historic peace talks between North
Korean leaders Kim Jong-un and the South Korean President Moon Jae-in to pursue
a permanent peace treaty and denuclearize the Korean peninsula, sentiments of whether
it can happen with India and Pakistan are wafting in both the countries. Can we
resolve our differences and work towards making our countries stronger by
focusing on growth and ensuring a better standard of life?
Dawn, a leading
newspaper in Pakistan that is respected for its independence and quality said
that a shared history between India and Pakistan and rising aspirations for
peace in both countries among the commoners who have similar cultural
similarities is reason enough for
pursuing this noble goal.
The warring Korean
leaders spoke a different language after decades shocking the world with their
newfound statesmanship. It ignited hope of how India and Pakistan could also
talk peace; bury the hatchet and move ahead to concentrate on nation building
and not inflating its defence budget every year.
A similar feeling was ignited when former
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee made a historic trip to Lahore 19 years
ago. But it fizzled out soon after Pakistanis took over strategic positions in
Kargil leading to a war within Indian Territory. Hope was ignited again before
the Agra Summit between President Pervez Musharaff and Vajpayee. But that too ended up as a dampener.
Prime Minister
Narendra Modi tried to normalize relations with Pakistan soon after taking over
which was remarkable in its own way considering that he was such a hawk when he
was the chief minister of Gujarat. At all his political rallies, he would take
potshots at Pakistan in vitriolic speeches taking a belligerent stand, much to
the delight of his audiences. But, after he rode to power in a landslide
victory in 2014, he invited the then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to
his oath taking ceremony, a gesture which got wide acclaim. He later paid
surprise visits to Pakistan that raised a new hope of normalistation.
These gestures were soon
ruined by terror attacks in Kashmir, Pathankot and elsewhere. India responded
with surgical strikes. Pakistan sentenced Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav to
death on charge of spying in a case that had too many holes just to prove India
was fiddling around with the separatist movement in Baluchistan. Bilateral
talks collapsed. Diplomats of both countries were humiliated and harassed. It
was a hopeless situation.
Ever since the
partition of India and Pakistan by the British in 1947, there has been
simmering palpable tension that has been on for the last 71 years. There have
been three wars and border skirmishes. The Siachen standoff that has been on
for decades costs India over one crore rupees a day.
Whenever there was an
Indian move towards peace, it would invariably get derailed by the top brass of
the Pakistan army. There was a pattern to it. Soon after the talks, there would
be intensified firing on the border leading to some Indian soldiers being
killed. Or there would be a terror attack where there would be a footprint of
Pakistani trained jihadists.
It was often noticed
during talks between Pakistani and Indian diplomats, that a Pakistani official
would often leave the room to return soon after. Sources indicate that it was to
take orders from the army on what should be the line to be taken on every
discussion point. When General Ashfaq
Pervez Kayani was at the helm as the army chief, there was a clear sign that
incidents on the border or elsewhere were designed just to ensure that peace
talks collapsed. Time and again.
There was a definite
pattern. In 2008, every public statement by the then President Asif Zardari
proclaiming his intention to make peace with India was followed by an attack on
a soft Indian target. There were border skirmishes. Then the Indian Embassy in
Kabul was attacked.
Obviously, this
derailed the peace process. When it was resumed again, the dastardly Mumbai
attack happened leading to many deaths in India’s commercial capital. India
reacted with Operation Parakram where it was on the brink of war. But good
sense prevailed.
It is a no brainer
that politics in Pakistan is completely controlled by the army. They dictate on
how its democracy should be run. Even when there is a seemingly democratically
elected Prime Minister, it is the army that calls the shots.
Ultimately, political
heads wanting peace means nothing unless the army wants it too. The Pakistan
army will never want peace as then it would completely make them
redundant. They would have no role, no
power. More importantly, it will not have control over huge finances involved
in the purchases of arms and other financial activities that it has got
involved in other than defending its borders.
No one questions how
army officers have such luxurious lives even after retirement. Or, where the
money is coming from.
It is important to
acknowledge that the Pakistan army controls a huge commercial empire that is
worth billions of dollars. There is no reason why it would want to give it up
just to have peace with India. In many
ways, the army controls a large part of the economy.
Strategic affairs
analyst, Ayesha Siddiqa’s book, “Military Inc. Inside Pakistan’s Military
Economy”, documents how the army has grown deep roots into the country’s
economy in all kinds of areas. Some of them are: agriculture, manufacturing,
services, transportation, and construction, of roads, bridges and storage
facilities, collecting tolls, running bakeries, cement plants and fertilizer
units, poultry farms, markets, commercial plazas, gas stations and so on.
But none of these
economic activities are reflected in the country’s budget. It is not subject to
accountability procedures. The varied commercial activities help both serving
and retired army personnel as it is a well-oiled system that takes care of all.
They get preferences all the time and that explains why so many of them own
land. That should make it clear to all of us who yearn for peace that vested
commercial interests will force the Pakistan army of ensuring that it does not
happen.
There is also
simmering anger among the military establishment about the Indian role in the
breakup of Pakistan when it helped give birth to Bangladesh in 1971. That
should explain why it wants so desperately to dismember Kashmir from India.
Former US secretary
of state Condoleezza Rice’s had once told Pakistan it was making a colossal
mistake by focusing its energies on an Indian threat that did not even exist.
But Pakistan ignored it and adopted cross border terrorism as a means to slowly
bleed India and keep the conflict alive. India has used every international
opportunity to showcase this fact and show how Pakistan is incubating terror.
It is now a given
that the Pakistan army belongs to the anti-talks and anti-peace faction as it
has obvious vested interests. But, that should not dampen India’s continued
stance to work for peace. The only way out is to engage with civil society
which also wants peace.
Contrary to Indian
public opinion, the fact is that there is absolutely no bitterness about India
as far as civil society is concerned. Ask any Indian who has visited Pakistan
and they will regale you with stories of warm hospitality and how even shop
keepers give heavy discounts when they realize that they are dealing with
Indian shoppers. Deep within, there is a bond of oneness which was there 71 years
ago. The bond has to do with the fact
seven decades ago; we lived together, fought for independence, celebrated
festivals and enjoyed culinary delights.
See how popular Indian films and film actors are in Pakistan.
Undoubtedly, wounds
of partition are deep. Over 14 million were displaced; many continued to live
as refugees for many years with memories of religious violence that took away
their loved ones. Many religious conflicts in both countries as a consequence
resulted in loss of thousands of lives for years after. But we cannot hang on
to these memories for ever as politicians in both countries stoke it to ensure
that the hatred simmers.
Given the narrow
politics that various political parties practice, Indian civil society should
not play into their hands and fall for the line that India shows up as a weak
country when it tries to talk peace with Pakistan. The government in power in
India must reach out to its populace to explain why peace is the only option so
that there is no room for jingoism to flourish. War is not an option. If there
is war, both the countries will run out of ammunition in two weeks. Both the
armies know that.
If East and West
Germany can unite after 41 years and if North and South Korea can think of it
now for the first time after 1945, can India and Pakistan do it too? That is a
very simplistic way to look at it as the situation between these two countries
is far too complex. Both are among the largest arms and ammunition shoppers in
the world! Why would the developed world
which sells both these countries defence equipment want India and Pakistan to
stop piling up arms when peace happens?
C. Raja Mohan,
director, Carnegie India and strategy affairs expert points out rightly that if
there is one lesson for India from the current political dynamism in Korea, it
is the fact that there is always room for creative diplomacy for the
strong-willed. But in the given
circumstances, will Pakistan’s army want peace? It has a disturbing answer.
All said and done,
efforts to reach out to Pakistan must continue with a stress on civil society
as only the people can force both a civilian and military controlled regime to
act. If right thinking people have the courage to get together and voice their
feelings and be ready to fight for their convictions, the hawks will get
marginalized.
Civil society in
Pakistan and India need to realize that if both the countries need to prosper
at the speed they need to lift their populace out of poverty and race to the
top of the world, the only way is to drop the past, forget and forgive and whip
up both sports and cultural exchanges as the ultimate healing touch.
Simultaneously, confidence building measures can be dovetailed in to smoothen
the rough edges and change perspectives. Only hope can allow us to dream.
